August 25, 2023
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 920 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 939 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 893 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Rinya Nakamura earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 57 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 916 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Rinya Nakamura controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 15 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 22.7% accuracy. Rinya Nakamura capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 9:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 821 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Rinya Nakamura dominated Fernie Garcia on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 9:26 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 280 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 939 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Rinya Nakamura demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rinya Nakamura capitalized on this activity level, while Fernie Garcia's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 939 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Rinya Nakamura extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fernie Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 939 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.