June 22, 2007
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Thales Leites's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Floyd Sword pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:50 | 3:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 960 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +67 |
Thales Leites earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 942 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Thales Leites edged the striking exchanges with 28 vs 3 total strikes, 60.0% vs 42.9% accuracy. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:38 | 2:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 896 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -104 | +104 |
Thales Leites dominated Floyd Sword on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:29 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +59 |
Thales Leites demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Floyd Sword's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Thales Leites extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Floyd Sword is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Floyd Sword | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.