December 29, 2006
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (6 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:41 | 4:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 153 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +116 |
Keith Jardine earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:41, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 089 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Keith Jardine controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 17 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 30.4% accuracy. Keith Jardine capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 092 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Keith Jardine controlled Forrest Griffin on the ground with 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 149 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +32 |
Keith Jardine demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Keith Jardine capitalized on this activity level, while Forrest Griffin's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 054 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +27 |
Keith Jardine extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Forrest Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Keith Jardine |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.