Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio Rua

September 21, 2007

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1137
(+31)
Forrest Griffin
Winner: Forrest Griffin
Submission
Round 3 • 4:45

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Forrest Griffin+31
Mauricio Rua-27
973
(-27)
Mauricio Rua

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +24Mauricio Rua: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Total UFC Fights81
Experience Gap7-7
Experience ELO1 105976
ELO Change+24-24
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What Happened

Forrest Griffin's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Forrest Griffin for the expected result. Had Mauricio Rua pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +17Mauricio Rua: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 079983
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +34Mauricio Rua: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish4:454:45
Win Type ELO1 208977
ELO Change+34-23
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What Happened

Forrest Griffin earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:45, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mauricio Rua was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +31Mauricio Rua: -31

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Significant Strikes Landed6627
Significant Strikes Attempted13075
Total Strikes Landed14653
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 155969
ELO Change+31-31
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What Happened

Forrest Griffin dominated the striking exchanges with 146 vs 53 total strikes, 66 vs 27 significant strikes, 50.8% vs 36.0% accuracy. Forrest Griffin capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +77Mauricio Rua: -77

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Takedowns Landed25
Takedowns Attempted212
Ground Control Time5:374:51
Ground Strikes Landed4110
Ground ELO1 183923
ELO Change+77-77
💡

What Happened

Forrest Griffin dominated Mauricio Rua on the ground with 2 takedowns, 5:37 of control time, 41 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +29Mauricio Rua: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Days Since Last Fight98N/A
Activity ELO1 198988
ELO Change+29-12
💡

What Happened

Forrest Griffin demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Forrest Griffin capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +20Mauricio Rua: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 092983
ELO Change+20-17
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What Happened

Forrest Griffin extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mauricio Rua is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Forrest Griffin: +18Mauricio Rua: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricForrest GriffinMauricio Rua
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 075982
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.