September 21, 2007
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 105 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Forrest Griffin's 7-fight experience advantage (8 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Forrest Griffin for the expected result. Had Mauricio Rua pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 079 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:45 | 4:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 208 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -23 |
Forrest Griffin earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:45, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mauricio Rua was submitted.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 146 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 155 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Forrest Griffin dominated the striking exchanges with 146 vs 53 total strikes, 66 vs 27 significant strikes, 50.8% vs 36.0% accuracy. Forrest Griffin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:37 | 4:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 41 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 183 | 923 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Forrest Griffin dominated Mauricio Rua on the ground with 2 takedowns, 5:37 of control time, 41 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 198 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -12 |
Forrest Griffin demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Forrest Griffin capitalized on this activity level, while Mauricio Rua's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Forrest Griffin extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mauricio Rua is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Mauricio Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

