April 14, 2006
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Tito Ortiz's 12-fight experience advantage (16 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tito Ortiz for the expected result. Had Forrest Griffin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 172 | 1 397 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Tito Ortiz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 170 | 125 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 81 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 140 | 1 340 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Tito Ortiz slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 48.8% vs 34.1% accuracy. Tito Ortiz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 5:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 1 143 | 1 393 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Tito Ortiz controlled Forrest Griffin on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:01 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 434 |
| Activity ELO | 1 135 | 1 345 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +10 |
Tito Ortiz demonstrated extended layoff with 434 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Tito Ortiz capitalized on this activity level, while Forrest Griffin's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Tito Ortiz extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Forrest Griffin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Forrest Griffin | Tito Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.