October 19, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 004 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Joshua Burkman's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joshua Burkman for the expected result. Had Forrest Petz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 000 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Joshua Burkman receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 65 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 138 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 113 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Forrest Petz controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (113 vs 51 total strikes), significant strike advantage (65 vs 44). However, since Forrest Petz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Joshua Burkman's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:36 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 846 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Joshua Burkman landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 130 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 037 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +33 |
Joshua Burkman demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joshua Burkman capitalized on this activity level, while Forrest Petz's 130-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Joshua Burkman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Forrest Petz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Joshua Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.