October 9, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 035 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:58 | 4:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 988 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +82 |
Marcus Davis earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 060 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Marcus Davis controlled the striking exchanges with 66 vs 19 total strikes, 33 vs 5 significant strikes, 66.0% vs 27.8% accuracy. Marcus Davis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -152 | +152 |
Marcus Davis dominated Forrest Petz on the ground with 0:50 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 54 | 339 |
| Activity ELO | 997 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Marcus Davis demonstrated standard activity with 339 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Marcus Davis capitalized on this activity level, while Forrest Petz's 54-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 998 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Marcus Davis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Forrest Petz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Forrest Petz | Marcus Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.