April 19, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 175 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Francis Carmont's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francis Carmont for the expected result. Had Lorenz Larkin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 194 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Francis Carmont earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 172 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Lorenz Larkin controlled the striking through superior volume (36 vs 13 total strikes), significant strike advantage (32 vs 12), superior accuracy (39.0% vs 16.0%). However, since Lorenz Larkin lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Francis Carmont's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:17 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 261 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Francis Carmont edged out Lorenz Larkin on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:17 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 175 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -12 |
Francis Carmont demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francis Carmont capitalized on this activity level, while Lorenz Larkin's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 127 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -15 |
Francis Carmont continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Lorenz Larkin's now at 0.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Lorenz Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 094 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

