Francis Carmont vs Lorenz Larkin

April 19, 2013

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1162
(+20)
Francis Carmont
Winner: Francis Carmont
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Francis Carmont+20
Lorenz Larkin-16
984
(-16)
Lorenz Larkin

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +18Lorenz Larkin: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Total UFC Fights51
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 175982
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

Francis Carmont's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francis Carmont for the expected result. Had Lorenz Larkin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +16Lorenz Larkin: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 094984
ELO Change+16-16
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +23Lorenz Larkin: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 194977
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

Francis Carmont earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +12Lorenz Larkin: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Significant Strikes Landed1232
Significant Strikes Attempted7582
Total Strikes Landed1336
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 172988
ELO Change+12-12
💡

What Happened

Lorenz Larkin controlled the striking through superior volume (36 vs 13 total strikes), significant strike advantage (32 vs 12), superior accuracy (39.0% vs 16.0%). However, since Lorenz Larkin lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Francis Carmont's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +18Lorenz Larkin: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted110
Ground Control Time5:170:08
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO1 261982
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Francis Carmont edged out Lorenz Larkin on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:17 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +22Lorenz Larkin: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Days Since Last Fight154N/A
Activity ELO1 175988
ELO Change+22-12
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What Happened

Francis Carmont demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francis Carmont capitalized on this activity level, while Lorenz Larkin's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +29Lorenz Larkin: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Win Streak50
Win Streak ELO1 127985
ELO Change+29-15
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What Happened

Francis Carmont continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Lorenz Larkin's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Francis Carmont: +16Lorenz Larkin: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancis CarmontLorenz Larkin
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 094984
ELO Change+16-16
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.