August 22, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 108 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Thales Leites's 3-fight experience advantage (12 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thales Leites for the expected result. Had Francis Carmont pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:20 | 0:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 143 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +51 |
Thales Leites gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 109 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Thales Leites controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thales Leites capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:27 | 0:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 118 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Thales Leites landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 151 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +34 |
Thales Leites demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thales Leites capitalized on this activity level, while Francis Carmont's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +28 |
Thales Leites extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francis Carmont is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Thales Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.