November 16, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 157 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -26 |
Francis Carmont overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tom Lawlor.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 171 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Francis Carmont receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 84 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 160 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Francis Carmont edged the striking exchanges with 34 vs 20 significant strikes, 40.5% vs 26.7% accuracy. Francis Carmont capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:32 | 6:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 243 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Francis Carmont did not secure a significant ground advantage against Tom Lawlor on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:32 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 130 | 187 |
| Activity ELO | 1 153 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Francis Carmont demonstrated solid activity levels with 130 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francis Carmont capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Lawlor's 187-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 098 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -18 |
Francis Carmont extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Lawlor is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francis Carmont | Tom Lawlor |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

