April 25, 2026
Lightweight Bout
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| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 026 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Francis Marshall's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francis Marshall for the expected result. Had Lucas Brennan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 105 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Francis Marshall earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 69 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 036 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Francis Marshall controlled the striking exchanges with 60 vs 20 total strikes, 33 vs 9 significant strikes, 47.8% vs 25.0% accuracy. Francis Marshall capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:36 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 094 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Francis Marshall controlled Lucas Brennan on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 6:36 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 104 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +106 | -21 |
Francis Marshall demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Francis Marshall capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Brennan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Francis Marshall extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Brennan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.