March 8, 2025
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +35 |
Mairon Santos overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Francis Marshall.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 015 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Mairon Santos receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 143 | 129 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 952 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Mairon Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 58 vs 39 significant strikes, 45.0% vs 27.3% accuracy. Mairon Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:35 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Mairon Santos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Francis Marshall on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Mairon Santos demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mairon Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Francis Marshall's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Mairon Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francis Marshall is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Mairon Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.