December 2, 2022
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 892 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Francis Marshall overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Marcelo Rojo.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:14 | 1:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 913 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -36 |
Francis Marshall gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 47 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 060 | 840 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Marcelo Rojo controlled the striking through superior volume (48 vs 29 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (31 vs 23), superior accuracy (66.0% vs 28.4%). However, since Marcelo Rojo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Francis Marshall's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 023 | 847 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Francis Marshall landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Francis Marshall demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Francis Marshall capitalized on this activity level, while Marcelo Rojo's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 021 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Francis Marshall started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcelo Rojo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francis Marshall | Marcelo Rojo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 942 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

