February 8, 2025
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -17 | 17 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Jake Matthews's 17-fight experience advantage (21 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Matthews for the expected result. Had Francisco Prado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 968 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 050 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Jake Matthews earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 146 | 184 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 95 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 078 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jake Matthews controlled the striking exchanges with 95 vs 64 total strikes, 68 vs 59 significant strikes. Jake Matthews capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:16 | 0:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 980 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Jake Matthews did not secure a significant ground advantage against Francisco Prado on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:40 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 351 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 994 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +13 |
Jake Matthews demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Matthews capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Prado's 351-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 973 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Jake Matthews extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Prado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 968 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.