February 10, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Jamie Mullarkey's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jamie Mullarkey for the expected result. Had Francisco Prado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jamie Mullarkey earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 78 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 971 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Jamie Mullarkey controlled the striking exchanges with 78 vs 31 total strikes, 59 vs 28 significant strikes, 56.7% vs 37.3% accuracy. Jamie Mullarkey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:10 | 4:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Jamie Mullarkey controlled Francisco Prado on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:47 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Jamie Mullarkey demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jamie Mullarkey capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Prado's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Jamie Mullarkey extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Prado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Prado | Jamie Mullarkey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.