June 12, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 010 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Johnny Case earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 025 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Johnny Case edged the striking exchanges with 40 vs 34 significant strikes, 36.7% vs 45.9% accuracy. Johnny Case capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:17 | 5:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 990 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Johnny Case controlled Francisco Trevino on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 5:31 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 455 | 146 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Johnny Case demonstrated solid activity levels with 146 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Johnny Case capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Trevino's 455-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Johnny Case extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Trevino is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Johnny Case |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

