October 2, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 965 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Sage Northcutt overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Francisco Trevino.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:57 | 0:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 967 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +115 |
Sage Northcutt secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:57 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 31 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 879 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -146 | +146 |
Sage Northcutt controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 1 total strikes, 21 vs 1 significant strikes, 67.7% vs 33.3% accuracy. Sage Northcutt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 933 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Sage Northcutt controlled Francisco Trevino on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Sage Northcutt demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Sage Northcutt capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Trevino's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Sage Northcutt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Trevino is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trevino | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

