October 12, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 998 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Gleison Tibau's 15-fight experience advantage (17 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gleison Tibau for the expected result. Had Francisco Trinaldo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 061 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Gleison Tibau earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 96 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 093 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled the striking through superior volume (70 vs 96 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (45 vs 36), superior accuracy (46.4% vs 57.1%), 1 knockdown. However, since Francisco Trinaldo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Gleison Tibau's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:08 | 6:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 033 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Gleison Tibau controlled Francisco Trinaldo on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 6:37 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 012 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +22 |
Gleison Tibau demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gleison Tibau capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Trinaldo's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Gleison Tibau started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Trinaldo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

