July 24, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 21 | -21 |
| Experience ELO | 1 250 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 21-fight experience advantage (22 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Jai Herbert pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 160 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:30 | 1:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 379 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -9 |
Francisco Trinaldo gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 293 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 21 significant strikes, 51.7% vs 30.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:18 | 3:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 278 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Francisco Trinaldo landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 362 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -5 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Jai Herbert's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 234 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -9 |
Francisco Trinaldo extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jai Herbert is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 160 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.