February 14, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 008 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Jesse Ronson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 038 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 112 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Francisco Trinaldo receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 148 | 126 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 101 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Francisco Trinaldo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:58 | 0:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 028 | 862 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled Jesse Ronson on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:58 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 165 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 105 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -15 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 165 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Ronson's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 049 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Francisco Trinaldo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Ronson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Jesse Ronson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

