March 13, 2020
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 237 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 4-fight experience advantage (21 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had John Makdessi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 147 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 360 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 126 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 68 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 261 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
John Makdessi controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (67 vs 55), superior accuracy (54.5% vs 43.7%). However, since John Makdessi lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Francisco Trinaldo's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 254 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 357 |
| Activity ELO | 1 352 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -11 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while John Makdessi's 357-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 222 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Francisco Trinaldo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Makdessi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | John Makdessi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 147 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

