March 10, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 172 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +48 |
Kevin Lee overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Francisco Trinaldo.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 123 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:12 | 3:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 291 | 1 366 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +73 |
Kevin Lee earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Francisco Trinaldo was submitted.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 266 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (25 vs 15). However, since Francisco Trinaldo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kevin Lee's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:45 | 2:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 220 | 1 414 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Kevin Lee controlled Francisco Trinaldo on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 313 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +68 |
Kevin Lee demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kevin Lee capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Trinaldo's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 206 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +38 |
Kevin Lee extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Trinaldo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 123 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.