November 15, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 211 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 9-fight experience advantage (20 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had King Green pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 129 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 330 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 245 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
King Green controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (67 vs 36 total strikes), significant strike advantage (50 vs 31), superior accuracy (43.5% vs 25.4%). However, since King Green lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Francisco Trinaldo's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 3:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 242 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Francisco Trinaldo did not secure a significant ground advantage against King Green on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:04 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 323 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -11 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while King Green's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 204 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -13 |
Francisco Trinaldo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. King Green is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 129 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

