Francisco Trinaldo vs Mike Rio

May 17, 2013

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1099
(+34)
Francisco Trinaldo
Winner: Francisco Trinaldo
Submission
Round 1 • 3:08

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Francisco Trinaldo+34
Mike Rio-27
1011
(-27)
Mike Rio

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +35Mike Rio: -35

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Total UFC Fights42
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 0621 026
ELO Change+35-35
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What Happened

Francisco Trinaldo's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Mike Rio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +21Mike Rio: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 044999
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +59Mike Rio: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:083:08
Win Type ELO1 1661 019
ELO Change+59-36
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What Happened

Francisco Trinaldo earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +14Mike Rio: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Significant Strikes Landed55
Significant Strikes Attempted811
Total Strikes Landed68
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1451 003
ELO Change+14-14
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What Happened

Francisco Trinaldo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 62.5% vs 45.5% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +49Mike Rio: -49

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Takedowns Landed11
Takedowns Attempted13
Ground Control Time0:571:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 1721 038
ELO Change+49-49
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What Happened

Francisco Trinaldo controlled Mike Rio on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:57 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +46Mike Rio: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Days Since Last Fight119154
Activity ELO1 1061 001
ELO Change+46-19
💡

What Happened

Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Rio's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +25Mike Rio: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 0531 001
ELO Change+25-21
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What Happened

Francisco Trinaldo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Rio is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Francisco Trinaldo: +21Mike Rio: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFrancisco TrinaldoMike Rio
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 044999
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.