May 17, 2013
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Mike Rio pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:08 | 3:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 166 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -36 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Francisco Trinaldo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 62.5% vs 45.5% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:57 | 1:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 172 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled Mike Rio on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:57 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 106 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -19 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Rio's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Francisco Trinaldo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Rio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Mike Rio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

