September 23, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 208 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Paul Felder pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 147 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:25 | 2:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 338 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Francisco Trinaldo gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 295 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Francisco Trinaldo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 47.8% vs 39.3% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:22 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 264 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled Paul Felder on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:22 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 118 |
| Activity ELO | 1 340 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -12 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Felder's 118-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 7 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 233 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -14 |
Francisco Trinaldo continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Paul Felder's now at 0.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Paul Felder |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 147 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

