September 30, 2022
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 211 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +64 |
Randy Brown overcame a 12-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 26 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Francisco Trinaldo.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 140 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 306 | 1 398 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Randy Brown earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 141 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 201 | 1 351 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Randy Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 60 vs 40 significant strikes, 42.6% vs 59.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Randy Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:21 | 0:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 228 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Randy Brown landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 1 336 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +60 |
Randy Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Francisco Trinaldo's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 207 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +37 |
Randy Brown extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Francisco Trinaldo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 140 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

