May 13, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 180 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Francisco Trinaldo's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Francisco Trinaldo for the expected result. Had Yancy Medeiros pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 131 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 321 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 117 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 175 | 163 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 143 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 280 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Francisco Trinaldo dominated the striking exchanges with 143 vs 71 total strikes, 117 vs 51 significant strikes, 66.9% vs 31.3% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:31 | 1:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 212 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Francisco Trinaldo edged out Yancy Medeiros on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:31 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 118 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 315 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -10 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 118 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Yancy Medeiros's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 194 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -14 |
Francisco Trinaldo continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Yancy Medeiros's now at 0.
| Metric | Francisco Trinaldo | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 131 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
