May 27, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 174 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Frank Mir's 14-fight experience advantage (18 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Frank Mir for the expected result. Had Roy Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 153 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 400 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Frank Mir earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 247 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Frank Mir controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 46 total strikes, 46 vs 21 significant strikes, 70.8% vs 41.2% accuracy. Frank Mir capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:24 | 4:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 256 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Frank Mir dominated Roy Nelson on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 7:24 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 218 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -14 |
Frank Mir demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Frank Mir capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 149 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Frank Mir extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roy Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 119 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.