July 14, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 20 | -20 |
| Experience ELO | 1 055 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Frank Mir's 20-fight experience advantage (25 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Frank Mir for the expected result. Had Todd Duffee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 111 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:13 | 1:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 415 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -35 |
Frank Mir earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:13, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 295 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -113 |
Frank Mir controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 9 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Frank Mir capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 182 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 143 | 221 |
| Activity ELO | 1 177 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -15 |
Frank Mir demonstrated solid activity levels with 143 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Frank Mir capitalized on this activity level, while Todd Duffee's 221-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 118 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Frank Mir extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Todd Duffee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Frank Mir | Todd Duffee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.