September 18, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Josh Koscheck's 9-fight experience advantage (15 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Koscheck for the expected result. Had Frank Trigg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:25 | 1:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 085 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +54 |
Josh Koscheck earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -124 | +124 |
Josh Koscheck controlled the striking exchanges with 9 vs 1 significant strikes, 52.9% vs 11.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Josh Koscheck capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 984 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Josh Koscheck landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 491 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +10 |
Josh Koscheck demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Koscheck capitalized on this activity level, while Frank Trigg's 1491-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Josh Koscheck started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Frank Trigg is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.