November 20, 2003
UFC Welterweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Matt Hughes's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Hughes for the expected result. Had Frank Trigg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +23 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Matt Hughes captured the UFC Welterweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:54 | 3:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 987 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +22 |
Matt Hughes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 994 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 0 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 991 | 1 420 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Matt Hughes controlled Frank Trigg on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:43 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +14 |
Matt Hughes demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Hughes capitalized on this activity level, while Frank Trigg's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +30 |
Matt Hughes continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Frank Trigg's now at 0.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.