February 5, 2010
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 965 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Matt Serra's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Serra for the expected result. Had Frank Trigg pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:23 | 2:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 055 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +67 |
Matt Serra earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:23, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 913 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Matt Serra controlled the striking exchanges with 12 vs 6 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Serra capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 956 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 004 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Matt Serra demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Serra capitalized on this activity level, while Frank Trigg's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 974 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +19 |
Matt Serra started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Frank Trigg is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Frank Trigg | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 961 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.