December 4, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 205 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Frankie Edgar's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Frankie Edgar for the expected result. Had Matt Veach pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:20 | 2:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 275 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -24 |
Frankie Edgar earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:20, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matt Veach was submitted.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 299 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Frankie Edgar controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 7 total strikes, 25 vs 7 significant strikes, 41.0% vs 16.7% accuracy. Frankie Edgar capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 2:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 279 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Frankie Edgar controlled Matt Veach on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:37 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 186 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Frankie Edgar demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Frankie Edgar capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Veach's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 127 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -16 |
Frankie Edgar extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Veach is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Frankie Edgar | Matt Veach |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.