March 22, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 028 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Marlon Vera's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marlon Vera for the expected result. Had Frankie Saenz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 015 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:25 | 1:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 045 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +66 |
Marlon Vera earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 4 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 955 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Marlon Vera controlled the striking exchanges with 12 vs 4 significant strikes, 75.0% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marlon Vera capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Marlon Vera landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 309 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 058 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Marlon Vera demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marlon Vera capitalized on this activity level, while Frankie Saenz's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 033 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +27 |
Marlon Vera extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Frankie Saenz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Frankie Saenz | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 015 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.