July 1, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 015 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Ian Machado Garry earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 90 | 116 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 195 | 193 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 102 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 068 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Ian Machado Garry controlled the striking exchanges with 129 vs 102 total strikes, 116 vs 90 significant strikes, 60.1% vs 46.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:17 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 992 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Ian Machado Garry landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +58 |
Ian Machado Garry demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Ian Machado Garry capitalized on this activity level, while Gabe Green's 63-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Ian Machado Garry extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabe Green is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.