Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo

May 17, 2025

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1017
(+32)
Gabe Green
Winner: Gabe Green
Submission
Round 2 • 3:43

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Gabe Green+32
Matheus Camilo-29
971
(-29)
Matheus Camilo

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +32Matheus Camilo: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Total UFC Fights61
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 028968
ELO Change+32-32
💡

What Happened

Gabe Green's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabe Green for the expected result. Had Matheus Camilo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +22Matheus Camilo: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 006978
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +60Matheus Camilo: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:433:43
Win Type ELO1 086961
ELO Change+60-39
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What Happened

Gabe Green earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matheus Camilo was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +24Matheus Camilo: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Significant Strikes Landed1213
Significant Strikes Attempted2727
Total Strikes Landed3633
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO996976
ELO Change+24-24
💡

What Happened

Gabe Green slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Gabe Green capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +49Matheus Camilo: -49

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time2:122:30
Ground Strikes Landed11
Ground ELO989951
ELO Change+49-49
💡

What Happened

Gabe Green edged out Matheus Camilo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:12 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +19Matheus Camilo: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Days Since Last Fight736N/A
Activity ELO1 009978
ELO Change+19-22
💡

What Happened

Gabe Green demonstrated extended layoff with 736 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gabe Green capitalized on this activity level, while Matheus Camilo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +24Matheus Camilo: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 015978
ELO Change+24-22
💡

What Happened

Gabe Green started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matheus Camilo is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Gabe Green: +22Matheus Camilo: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricGabe GreenMatheus Camilo
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 006978
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.