May 17, 2025
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 028 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Gabe Green's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabe Green for the expected result. Had Matheus Camilo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 006 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:43 | 3:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 086 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -39 |
Gabe Green earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Matheus Camilo was submitted.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 996 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Gabe Green slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Gabe Green capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:12 | 2:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Gabe Green edged out Matheus Camilo on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:12 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 736 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 009 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -22 |
Gabe Green demonstrated extended layoff with 736 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gabe Green capitalized on this activity level, while Matheus Camilo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 015 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Gabe Green started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matheus Camilo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

