January 12, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 43 |
| Experience Gap | -29 | 29 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Jim Miller's 29-fight experience advantage (43 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Gabriel Benitez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 993 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:25 | 3:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 127 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +31 |
Jim Miller earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Gabriel Benitez was submitted.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 80 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 182 | 140 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 96 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 002 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
Jim Miller slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 57.1% vs 44.0% accuracy. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 3:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 964 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +75 |
Jim Miller dominated Gabriel Benitez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:55 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 519 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 1 050 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +9 |
Jim Miller demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriel Benitez's 519-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 010 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Jim Miller extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriel Benitez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Benitez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 993 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.