November 3, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 104 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Nicolas Dalby's 9-fight experience advantage (12 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nicolas Dalby for the expected result. Had Gabriel Bonfim pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 027 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:33 | 4:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 153 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +85 |
Nicolas Dalby gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 996 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Nicolas Dalby controlled the striking exchanges with 53 vs 39 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:19 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 099 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Nicolas Dalby landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 040 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +29 |
Nicolas Dalby demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nicolas Dalby capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriel Bonfim's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 036 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Nicolas Dalby extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriel Bonfim is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Bonfim | Nicolas Dalby |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.