July 4, 2008
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 105 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Gabriel Gonzaga's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriel Gonzaga for the expected result. Had Justin McCully pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:57 | 1:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 221 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -29 |
Gabriel Gonzaga earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 178 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Gabriel Gonzaga slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 75.0% vs 22.2% accuracy. Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:16 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 245 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +110 | -110 |
Gabriel Gonzaga dominated Justin McCully on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:16 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 457 |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -18 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Justin McCully's 457-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 076 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Gabriel Gonzaga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin McCully is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Justin McCully |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 065 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.