April 20, 2007
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 143 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Gabriel Gonzaga's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gabriel Gonzaga for the expected result. Had Mirko Filipovic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 078 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:51 | 4:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 254 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -34 |
Gabriel Gonzaga earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:51, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 323 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +146 | -146 |
Gabriel Gonzaga controlled the striking exchanges with 31 vs 4 total strikes, 19 vs 1 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 251 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Gabriel Gonzaga controlled Mirko Filipovic on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:05 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 114 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -18 |
Gabriel Gonzaga demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gabriel Gonzaga capitalized on this activity level, while Mirko Filipovic's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 096 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -18 |
Gabriel Gonzaga extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mirko Filipovic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Mirko Filipovic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 078 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.