August 24, 2007
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 118 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Randy Couture's 13-fight experience advantage (18 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randy Couture for the expected result. Had Gabriel Gonzaga pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 071 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +22 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Randy Couture captured the UFC Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 233 | 1 485 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Randy Couture gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 38 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 258 | 1 521 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Randy Couture dominated the striking exchanges with 82 vs 12 total strikes, 63 vs 11 significant strikes, 72.4% vs 28.9% accuracy. Randy Couture capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 9:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 216 | 1 533 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Randy Couture dominated Gabriel Gonzaga on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 9:01 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 106 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +14 |
Randy Couture demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Couture capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriel Gonzaga's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 082 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Randy Couture extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriel Gonzaga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 377 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.