March 6, 2009
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 093 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +47 |
Shane Carwin overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gabriel Gonzaga.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:09 | 1:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 215 | 1 318 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +120 |
Shane Carwin earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:09, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 140 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Shane Carwin controlled the striking exchanges with 40.0% vs 62.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Shane Carwin capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 234 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Shane Carwin landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +51 |
Shane Carwin demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Shane Carwin capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriel Gonzaga's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +31 |
Shane Carwin extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriel Gonzaga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Gonzaga | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.