March 17, 2023
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Lerone Murphy's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lerone Murphy for the expected result. Had Gabriel Santos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 996 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Lerone Murphy receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 161 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 87 | 115 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 983 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Lerone Murphy controlled the striking exchanges with 115 vs 87 total strikes, 93 vs 69 significant strikes. Lerone Murphy capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:00 | 2:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Lerone Murphy edged out Gabriel Santos on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:18 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 505 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +15 |
Lerone Murphy demonstrated extended layoff with 505 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Lerone Murphy capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriel Santos's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +22 |
Lerone Murphy extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriel Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.