July 24, 2020
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 007 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Paul Craig's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Craig for the expected result. Had Gadzhimurad Antigulov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:06 | 2:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 053 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +74 |
Paul Craig earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 895 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Gadzhimurad Antigulov controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 2), superior accuracy (68.8% vs 40.0%). However, since Gadzhimurad Antigulov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Paul Craig's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:41 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 040 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Paul Craig edged out Gadzhimurad Antigulov on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 462 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 002 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Paul Craig demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Paul Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Gadzhimurad Antigulov's 462-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Paul Craig started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gadzhimurad Antigulov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

