March 10, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 892 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Paulo Costa overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Garreth McLellan.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 942 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:17 | 1:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 966 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +103 |
Paulo Costa earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 822 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Paulo Costa controlled the striking exchanges with 22 vs 6 significant strikes, 68.8% vs 42.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paulo Costa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 891 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Paulo Costa landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 948 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Paulo Costa demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Paulo Costa capitalized on this activity level, while Garreth McLellan's 197-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 945 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Paulo Costa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Garreth McLellan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Garreth McLellan | Paulo Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 942 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.