January 12, 2024
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 026 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:29 | 3:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +67 |
Marcus McGhee gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 933 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -94 | +94 |
Marcus McGhee controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 28 total strikes, 65 vs 28 significant strikes, 52.8% vs 34.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcus McGhee capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:04 | 1:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Marcus McGhee landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +32 |
Marcus McGhee demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcus McGhee capitalized on this activity level, while Gaston Bolanos's 274-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 999 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +26 |
Marcus McGhee extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gaston Bolanos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gaston Bolanos | Marcus McGhee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.