August 7, 2020
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Gavin Tucker's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gavin Tucker for the expected result. Had Justin Jaynes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:43 | 1:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 130 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -50 |
Gavin Tucker earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:43, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Justin Jaynes was submitted.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 87 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 211 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 88 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 024 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Gavin Tucker controlled the striking exchanges with 88 vs 42 total strikes, 87 vs 41 significant strikes. Gavin Tucker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:24 | 0:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 146 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Gavin Tucker controlled Justin Jaynes on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:24 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 378 | 49 |
| Activity ELO | 1 039 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -21 |
Gavin Tucker demonstrated extended layoff with 378 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Gavin Tucker capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Jaynes's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Gavin Tucker extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Jaynes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gavin Tucker | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 039 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

