September 4, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 074 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +19 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:30 | 4:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 133 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +39 |
Jacare Souza earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:30, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Gegard Mousasi was submitted.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 130 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Gegard Mousasi controlled the striking through superior volume (78 vs 59 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (26 vs 32), superior accuracy (46.4% vs 57.1%). However, since Gegard Mousasi lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jacare Souza's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 10:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 077 | 1 461 |
| ELO Change | -125 | +125 |
Jacare Souza dominated Gegard Mousasi on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 10:48 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 97 | 202 |
| Activity ELO | 1 086 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Jacare Souza demonstrated standard activity with 202 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jacare Souza capitalized on this activity level, while Gegard Mousasi's 97-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Jacare Souza extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gegard Mousasi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Jacare Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

