February 14, 2014
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 010 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Lyoto Machida's 15-fight experience advantage (17 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lyoto Machida for the expected result. Had Gegard Mousasi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 1 539 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
Lyoto Machida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 106 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 057 | 1 534 |
| ELO Change | -3 | +3 |
Gegard Mousasi controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (66 vs 35 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (36 vs 28). However, since Gegard Mousasi lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Lyoto Machida's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:42 | 3:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 014 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Lyoto Machida slightly outworked Gegard Mousasi on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:10 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 316 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 016 | 1 394 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +12 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Gegard Mousasi's 316-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +11 |
Lyoto Machida extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gegard Mousasi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 008 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.