July 8, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 214 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:32 | 4:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 417 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | +100 | -47 |
Gegard Mousasi earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 444 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | +177 | -177 |
Gegard Mousasi controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 5 total strikes, 21 vs 5 significant strikes, 61.8% vs 38.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gegard Mousasi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:09 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 316 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Gegard Mousasi landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 133 | 56 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -16 |
Gegard Mousasi demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gegard Mousasi capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's 56-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Gegard Mousasi extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Gegard Mousasi | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

